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🔴 BREAKING LINE MOVEMENTS

Major Shifts (as of 1 hour before kickoff):

• Giants vs Commanders: Giants moved from 4.5 to 5.5 (sharp money coming in on NYG)
• Seahawks vs 49ers: Now a PICK’EM (was SEA +2.5)
• Broncos vs Cardinals: DEN moved to -9 (was -8.5)
• Buccaneers vs Falcons: TB down to PICK’EM (was TB -2.5)
• Jaguars vs Panthers: JAX up to -4.5 at some books (from -3.5)
• Patriots vs Raiders: NE holding at -2.5

⛈️ WEATHER ALERTS

HIGH IMPACT GAMES:

Jets vs Steelers (1pm ET)

• “Monsoon” conditions reported
• 70% chance of rain throughout
• Total dropped to 37.5-38 (from 38.5)
• 9 mph winds, not severe

Jaguars vs Panthers (1pm ET)

• Heavy thunderstorms at kickoff
• 81% chance of rain
• Feels like 102°F in Jacksonville
• Total at 46.5

Bengals vs Browns (1pm ET)

• Wind gusts up to 28 mph
• 15 mph sustained winds
• Avoid kicker props
• Total at 47.5

Patriots vs Raiders (1pm ET)

• 60% rain chance at kickoff
• Expected to lighten throughout
• Total down to 44

📊 SURVIVOR POOL INTELLIGENCE

Circa Survivor Contest (18,718 entries)

TOP 5 PICKS:

1. Broncos – 38.4% (7,173 entries)
2. Cardinals – 22.3% (4,171 entries)
3. Eagles – 10% (Thursday completed)
4. Jaguars – 8.8% (1,636 entries)
5. Bengals – 6.6% (1,235 entries)

Contrarian Plays:

• Titans (+8.5) – Only 335 picks (1.8%)
• Saints – Expected to be least picked weekly

$100K Grand Prize Pool:

• 15 entries locked in
• Cardinals lead with 11 picks
• Only 69 total entries

💰 BETTING SPLITS & SHARP ACTION

Where the Money’s Going (Circa Sportsbook):

Heavy Public/Sharp Disagreement:

• Jaguars: 97% of handle (massive sharp action)
• Raiders: 79% of handle locally (sharp money)
• Commanders: 60% of handle (late money coming in)

DraftKings vs Circa Discrepancies:

• Patriots: 66% handle at DK, opposite at Circa
• Raiders: Getting sharp support at Circa

Circa Millions Contest Top Picks:

1. Giants
2. Seahawks
3. Broncos
4. Falcons
5. Panthers (contrarian at 9.2%)

🎯 KEY MATCHUP ANALYSIS

MUST-WATCH GAMES:

Jaguars @ Panthers (-3.5 to -4.5)

• JAX facing worst 2023 defense (all categories)
• Travis Hunter expected heavy snaps both ways
• JAX schedule brutal after this (CIN, HOU, SF, KC)
• “Must-win” for Jacksonville

Cardinals @ Saints (+2.5)

• Spencer Rattler worst EPA/CPOE composite 2023
• Dome-to-dome game (no weather factor)
• Limited future spots to use Arizona
• Saints ranked 32nd in power ratings

Giants @ Commanders (-6)

• Most popular ATS contest pick
• Sharp money on Giants all week
• Line movement tracking sharp action
• Public/sharp alignment rare

📈 TOTALS & PROPS INTEL

Weather-Impacted Totals to Avoid:

• Jets/Steelers U38
• Bengals/Browns (wind issues)

Sharp Total Plays:

• Patriots/Raiders O44 (despite weather)
• Jaguars/Panthers O46.5 (explosive potential)

Prop Warnings:

• Avoid ALL kicker props in CLE/CIN
• Travis Hunter snap count props interesting
• Weather games = unders bias

🏆 EXPERT CONSENSUS PICKS

From Circa Resources Analysis:

STRONGEST PLAYS:

1. Cardinals -2.5 vs Saints (rookie QB mismatch)
2. Giants +5.5 vs Commanders (sharp steam)
3. Broncos -8.5 (public/sharp aligned)

VALUE PLAYS:

• Panthers +4 (contrarian survivor fade)
• Raiders +2.5 (sharp money vs public)
• Under 38 Jets/Steelers (weather)

STAY AWAY:

• Any Cincinnati plays (trap potential)
• Weather game overs
• Eagles backers (already played)

Analysis compiled from Circa Sportsbook resources, latest available news, and contest data. Line movements as of 1 hour before first kickoff. For real-time updates and to watch the games, visit your local sports bar.